CRE OVERVIEW
CRE OVERVIEW NEW ZEALAND
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NEW ZEALAND
CRE OVERVIEW
GEOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW
New Zealand’s population has grown to over 5.3 million, supported by both natural increase and net international migration. As at June 2025, natural increase became the primary contributor to population growth for the first time in more than a decade, excluding the temporary COVID-related distortion. Over the past year, natural increase rose from 19,600 to 21,000, while net international migration declined sharply from 70,400 to 13,700. Over the longer term, the population is projected to increase more gradually, reaching close to 5.5 million by 2033. Population growth remains concentrated in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch, with Auckland home to nearly one-third of the national population and continuing to function as the primary economic centre. While Auckland recorded natural increase and international migration gains in the first half of 2025, it also experienced the largest net DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW
New Zealand is a South Pacific nation comprised of numerous islands, with the North Island and South Island being the largest and most economically significant. Commercial and demographic activity is concentrated within a connected network of urban centres led by Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch. Auckland serves as the primary commercial hub and gateway for international trade and talent; Wellington anchors the administrative and policy base; while Christchurch supports South Island commerce, services, and regional industries. Growing centres such as Hamilton and Tauranga also contribute to an expanding economic corridor supported by port connectivity and logistics infrastructure. This spatial pattern that concentrated in key nodes but geographically well-linked, shapes a property market where locality, transport access, and sector-specific clustering directly influence occupier demand and investment strategy.
internal migration loss nationally, reflecting an ongoing redistribution of population towards surrounding and regional centres. Hamilton has benefited from population spillover from Auckland, supported by its proximity and inflows from both natural increase and international migration. While growth has been strong, the city remains smaller in scale, with a population of approximately 152,000, and sits outside New Zealand’s three largest urban markets. Christchurch has been more reliant on internal migration, recording net internal inflows over the past year, partly offset by a sharp slowdown in international migration. Wellington presents a contrasting dynamic, with international departures exceeding arrivals, resulting in the largest net international migration loss among major cities, despite its role as the national capital.
CHART 1: NEW ZEALAND MAJOR CITIES
AUCKLAND
WELLINGTON
CHRISTCHURCH
CHART 2: POPULATION CHANGE (JUNE 2025)
NET INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
NATURAL INCREASE
NET INTERNAL MIGRATION
CITY
POPULATION
Auckland
1,710,000
11,400
-3,200
9,500
Wellington
427,500
750
210
-1,700
Christchurch
410,400
1,300
1,700
980
Hamilton
152,600
1,500
800
1,900
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NEW ZEALAND
CRE OVERVIEW
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
New Zealand’s economy is relatively small but highly internationally connected, supported by a diversified base spanning services, tourism, agriculture, food production and a growing technology sector. Economic growth has moderated in recent years amid tighter monetary policy and heightened global uncertainty. While inflationary pressures have begun to ease, economic momentum remains uneven across sectors. Following a recession in 2024, the economy has entered an early recovery phase. Nevertheless, the GDP recorded a slight contraction in the June 2025 quarter, following two quarters of modest growth. Inflation has been tracking near the upper end of the 1–3% target band, although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) expects inflation to stabilise around 2% over the medium term.
Labour market conditions have softened, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% as at September 2025, slightly above pandemic-era peaks and above the levels that prevailed through much of that period. In response, the RBNZ has adopted a more accommodative stance, delivering a 50-basis-point rate cut in October to support confidence and economic activity. New Zealand remains exposed to global trade conditions, particularly through its export relationship with the United States. Around 70% of goods exports to the US are subject to a 15% “reciprocal” tariff, with goods exports totalling $9.3 billion, or around 13% of total exports, over the past year. According to Westpac, strong demand and elevated commodity prices have so far cushioned most primary exporters, although pressure would likely increase should US demand weaken, particularly across key export categories including dairy, meat, timber and horticulture.
CHART 3: POPULATION PROJECTION
CHART 4: NET MIGRATION
POPULATION
FORECAST
MIGRANT ARRIVALS
MIGRANT DEPARTURES
NET MIGRATION
6.00
250,000
5.59
200,000
5.00
150,000
4.50
100,000
4.00
50,000
3.50
-
-50,000
3.00
Source: Stats NZ
Source: Moody’s
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CHART 5: REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
CHART 6: CASH RATE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI)
CHART 7: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Employment Growth
Unemployment Rate
8%
CASH RATE
CPI
HISTORICAL
FORECAST
10%
20%
6%
15%
8%
4%
10%
6%
2%
5%
4%
0%
0%
-5%
2%
-2%
-10%
0%
-4%
-15%
Source: Moody’s, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Source: Moody’s, Cushman & Wakefield Research
CHART 8: GLOBAL COMPARISON (AVERAGE 2025-2034)
1.5%
Australia
1.0%
Canada
United Kingdom
New Zealand
0.5%
Germany
Spain
France
United States
0.0%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
South Korea
Italy
-0.5%
Japan
-1.0%
POPULATION GROWTH
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NEW ZEALAND
CRE OVERVIEW
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE DEMAND DRIVER
OFFICE
According to the World Bank, New Zealand is ranked among the world’s top 10 destinations for ease of doing business, especially for its top-tier public services and operational efficiency. This supports business formation and expansion, which in turn underpins demand for office-based employment. Nationally there are estimated to be around 401,000 employment in office-using industries, concentrated in the three main cities.
Auckland accounts for approximately 50% of total office employment in the country, followed by Wellington and Christchurch. Over the longer term, Christchurch has the potential to overtake Wellington in term of employment in office-using industries, as Wellington’s share has been on a downward trend since the 2000s. Looking ahead, driven by a broader economic rebound, employment in office-using industries is forecast to grow by around 1% per annum through to early 2028, reaching approximately 442,000 jobs, before moderating to around 0.3–0.5%
per annum to 2034, lifting the total to around 480,000 jobs. This outlook should continue to support steady baseline demand for office accommodation across the main markets. Auckland’s demand is driven by its scale and economic breadth, with office-using industries contributing an estimated $58.2 billion in Gross Value Added. Based on the structure of the regional economy, professional, financial and insurance services account for a significant share of this activity, given these sectors together represent around 20% of Auckland’s GDP.
Wellington’s office-using industries contributing approximately $17.7 billion in GVA and demand closely tied to the public sector and related professional services, making it more sensitive to government policy and fiscal settings. Christchurch’s office-using industries contributing approximately $12.8 billion in Gross Value Added. Demand is primarily shaped by construction and professional services, which together represent a significant share of the regional economy and underpin office-using activity, particularly construction-related professional services linked to ongoing redevelopment and regeneration.
CHART 9: SHARE OF EMPLOYMENT IN OFFICE-USING INDUSTRIES
CHART 10: EMPLOYMENT IN OFFICE-USING INDUSTRIES IN NEW ZEALAND
Historical
Forecast
600
100%
9%
22%
22%
13%
500
80%
11%
12%
22%
400
60%
17%
15%
300
40%
200
56%
51%
50%
20%
100
0%
2004
2014
2024
0
Auckland Wellington Christchurch Rest of NZ
Source: Moody’s, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Source: Moody’s, Cushman & Wakefield Research
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NEW ZEALAND
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INDUSTRIAL
Industrial demand in New Zealand is backed by the scale and growth of trade activity, given the country’s heavy dependence on global trade. In September 2025, total trade reached approximately $169 billion, comprising $94 billion of imports and $75 billion of exports, with Moody’s forecasting total trade to increase to around $204 billion by 2030. This growth trajectory continues to support baseline demand for logistics, warehousing and distribution space. The composition of trade further reinforces demand for industrial property. Exports are dominated by primary and processed goods, led by dairy ($4.23 billion, 17% of exports), followed by meat and fruit (around $1.9 billion each, 8%), supporting ongoing demand for processing, cold storage and export-oriented logistics facilities. On the import side, machinery and equipment ($3.1 billion, 10%),
vehicles and parts ($2.3 billion, 8%) and oil and gas ($2.1 billion, 7%) underpin demand for large-format warehousing and distribution assets. At regional level, Auckland’s economy has a strong industrial orientation, with manufacturing (around 8%) and wholesale trade (around 9%) together accounting for a material share of the city’s GDP. This economic structure is to translate into sustained industrial space requirements, consistent with Auckland’s role as the country’s primary distribution and manufacturing hub. Compared to Auckland, Wellington’s industrial demand is smaller. Christchurch exhibits a more production-oriented industrial profile, supported by manufacturing and construction, which reinforces the demand for larger-format industrial facilities tied to agricultural goods processing and supply-chain activity.
CHART 11: TOTAL TRADE (NZD, BILLION)
250
Total Import
Total Export
Total Tade
200
150
100
50
0
Source: Moody’s, Cushman & Wakefield Research
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CRE OVERVIEW
CHART 14: GDP COMPONENT OF MAJOR CITIES (AS AT 2023)
CHART 12: IMPORT COMPOSITION
AUCKLAND Sector
NZD $ (bn)
%
10%
Professional Services
16.8
12%
Finance & Insurance
14.7
11%
8%
Machinery Vehicle Travel Oil & Gas Electronics Others
Manufacturing
12.0
9%
Construction
11.1
8%
7%
Wholesale Trade
10.6
8%
Real Estate Services
10.4
8%
7%
Info Media & Telco
9.5
7%
62%
Others
51.0
37%
6%
WELLINGTON Sector
NZD $ (bn)
%
Source: Moody’s, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Professional Services
6.9
15%
Public Sector
6.0
13%
Finance & Insurance
3.8
8%
Owner-Occupied Property Operation
3.6
8%
CHART 13: EXPORT COMPOSITION
Info Media & Telco
3.3
7%
Healthcare
2.9
6%
Construction
2.7
6%
Others
15.6
35%
17%
CHRISTCHURCH Sector
Dairy Travel Meat Fruit Logs Others
NZD $ (bn)
%
Manufacturing
4.8
11%
13%
49%
Construction
4.3
10%
Professional Services
4.2
9%
Owner-Occupied Property Operation
3.7
8%
8%
Healthcare
3.5
8%
8%
Real Estate Services
3.2
7%
5%
Agriculture
2.7
6%
Others
18.4
41%
Source: Stats NZ
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CHART 15: RETAIL SALES AND VOLUME GROWTH
CHART 16: RETAIL SALES AND VOLUME GROWTH
Household Income Growth Rate
Values
Volume
40%
30%
$- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Source: Stats NZ, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Source: Stats NZ, Cushman & Wakefield Research
RETAIL
CHART 17: INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVAL
Retail sales performance in New Zealand has normalised following the period of volatility experienced during the pandemic and subsequent reopening. While inflationary pressures initially lifted the value of retail trade, higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures later weighed on volume growth. More recently, retail conditions have stabilised, with spending increasingly shaped by underlying income growth rather than pandemic- related distortions. Consumer sentiment has also shown signs of improvement. According to the ANZ , consumer confidence has lifted by 6 points in November, from 92.4 to 98.4, and now sits well above the lows recorded through 2022–2024, when readings were largely in the 70–80 range. While confidence remains below the neutral 100-point level, the improvement suggests a more supportive backdrop for household spending and retail activity moving forward.
Household disposable income provides the key structural support for retail demand. Following a low point of around 1.5% growth during the pandemic, disposable income rebounded strongly, rising to approximately 5.8% in 2024, above the five-year average of 4.7%. Over the longer term, disposable income is forecast to grow at around 4–5% per annum, supporting a stable baseline for household consumption. Tourism provides an important supplementary driver of retail demand, particularly in CBD and destination-oriented precincts. International tourism declined sharply during border closures but recovered gradually through 2022, with a much stronger rebound in 2023 following the full reopening of borders around the world. Tourist arrivals are expected to increase further, but a return to pre-pandemic volumes of around 4 million is likely to be gradual.
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Stats NZ, Cushman & Wakefield Research
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NEW ZEALAND
CRE OVERVIEW
CAPITAL MARKETS
CHART 18: CAPITAL MARKET ASSET COMPOSITION
O ce Retail
Industrial
Others
Investment volumes have increased during the pandemic, peaking at approximately $5.7 billion in 2021, supported by low interest rates and strong liquidity, before declining sharply amid global monetary tightening and heightened economic uncertainty. Activity has since begun to recover, with around $6.9 billion recorded in 2025, highest since 2019, signalling a strong improvement in market conditions. Investor preferences have shifted materially over this period. Industrial assets have driven the recovery in investment volumes, increasing from 24% of national transaction volume in 2019 to 51% in 2025, with an average share of approximately 31% over the past seven years. Retail investment has also gained share, rising from 9% in 2019 to 16% in 2025, while office investment has declined, with its share falling from 33% in 2019 to 13% in 2025. Auckland remains the country’s primary capital markets destination, accounting for 46–65% of national investment activity over the past seven years. In 2025, the city recorded approximately $4.1 billion in total transactions. Within this, Auckland accounted for around 64% of national
retail investment and approximately 83% of industrial investment, reinforcing its role as the dominant investment market across these asset classes. Office investment has been more volatile, declining from around 69% of national office investment in 2019 to around 21% in 2025, a sign that investor appetite has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. Nonetheless, major transactions continue to occur, including Quattro Group’s acquisition of four interconnected office buildings in the Auckland CBD (22, 24 and 26 Durham Street West and 19 Victoria Street West), alongside sustained interest in industrial assets, exemplified by Goodman Group’s sale of a 28% stake in the Highbrook Business Park portfolio, valued at approximately $2.1 billion, to Mercer. In contrast, Wellington and Christchurch have attracted more selective investment activity. Wellington recorded approximately $368 million of investment in 2025, or around 5% of national volume, with transaction activity remaining heavily skewed towards office assets and below pre-pandemic levels. Christchurch has seen a shift in investor focus, with earlier strength in retail investment during 2021–2022 giving way to stronger interest in industrial assets, which accounted for around 45% of total investment in 2025.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
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NEW ZEALAND
CRE OVERVIEW
CHART 19: NEW ZEALAND CAPITAL MARKET
CHART 20: AUCKLAND CAPITAL MARKET
Oce Retail Industrial Others
Oce Retail
Industrial
Others
$5
$8
$7
$4
$6
$5
$3
$4
$2
$3
$2
$1
$1
$-
$-
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
CHART 21: WELLINGTON CAPITAL MARKET
CHART 22: CHRISTCHURCH CAPITAL MARKET
Oce Retail
Industrial
Others
Oce Retail
Industrial
Others
$800
$700
$700
$600
$600
$500
$500
$400
$400
$300
$300
$200
$200
$100
$100
$-
$-
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
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NEW ZEALAND
CRE OVERVIEW
CONCLUSION
New Zealand’s commercial property market is entering a more nuanced phase of the cycle. The post-pandemic adjustment period has largely played out, with economic growth stabilising, monetary policy becoming more supportive and capital markets activity showing early signs of recovery. Looking ahead, office demand is increasingly underpinned by employment growth. Industrial fundamentals remain structurally supported by trade activity, supply-chain requirements and constrained land availability. Retail conditions, while more exposed to household budgets, continue to benefit from income growth and the gradual recovery in tourism, particularly in key urban and destination markets. Meanwhile, the investment environment presents a more balanced entry point than in recent years. While near-term conditions remain uneven and sensitive to global trade dynamics, the underlying drivers of demand across office, industrial and retail sectors remain intact.
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About Cushman & Wakefield Cushman & Wakefield (NYSE: CWK) is a leading global commercial real estate services firm for property owners and occupiers with approximately 52,000 employees in nearly 400 offices and 60 countries. In 2024, the firm reported revenue of $9.4 billion across its core service lines of Services, Leasing, Capital markets, and Valuation and other. Built around the belief that Better never settles, the firm receives numerous industry and business accolades for its award-winning culture.
For additional information, visit www.cushmanwakefield.com.
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