NEW ZEALAND
CRE OVERVIEW
CHART 15: RETAIL SALES AND VOLUME GROWTH
CHART 16: RETAIL SALES AND VOLUME GROWTH
Household Income Growth Rate
Values
Volume
40%
30%
$- $20,000 $40,000 $60,000 $80,000 $100,000 $120,000
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
Source: Stats NZ, Cushman & Wakefield Research
Source: Stats NZ, Cushman & Wakefield Research
RETAIL
CHART 17: INTERNATIONAL TOURIST ARRIVAL
Retail sales performance in New Zealand has normalised following the period of volatility experienced during the pandemic and subsequent reopening. While inflationary pressures initially lifted the value of retail trade, higher interest rates and cost-of-living pressures later weighed on volume growth. More recently, retail conditions have stabilised, with spending increasingly shaped by underlying income growth rather than pandemic- related distortions. Consumer sentiment has also shown signs of improvement. According to the ANZ , consumer confidence has lifted by 6 points in November, from 92.4 to 98.4, and now sits well above the lows recorded through 2022–2024, when readings were largely in the 70–80 range. While confidence remains below the neutral 100-point level, the improvement suggests a more supportive backdrop for household spending and retail activity moving forward.
Household disposable income provides the key structural support for retail demand. Following a low point of around 1.5% growth during the pandemic, disposable income rebounded strongly, rising to approximately 5.8% in 2024, above the five-year average of 4.7%. Over the longer term, disposable income is forecast to grow at around 4–5% per annum, supporting a stable baseline for household consumption. Tourism provides an important supplementary driver of retail demand, particularly in CBD and destination-oriented precincts. International tourism declined sharply during border closures but recovered gradually through 2022, with a much stronger rebound in 2023 following the full reopening of borders around the world. Tourist arrivals are expected to increase further, but a return to pre-pandemic volumes of around 4 million is likely to be gradual.
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
-
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2022 2023 2024 2025
Source: Stats NZ, Cushman & Wakefield Research
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
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