NEW ZEALAND
CRE OVERVIEW
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
New Zealand’s economy is relatively small but highly internationally connected, supported by a diversified base spanning services, tourism, agriculture, food production and a growing technology sector. Economic growth has moderated in recent years amid tighter monetary policy and heightened global uncertainty. While inflationary pressures have begun to ease, economic momentum remains uneven across sectors. Following a recession in 2024, the economy has entered an early recovery phase. Nevertheless, the GDP recorded a slight contraction in the June 2025 quarter, following two quarters of modest growth. Inflation has been tracking near the upper end of the 1–3% target band, although the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) expects inflation to stabilise around 2% over the medium term.
Labour market conditions have softened, with the unemployment rate rising to 5.3% as at September 2025, slightly above pandemic-era peaks and above the levels that prevailed through much of that period. In response, the RBNZ has adopted a more accommodative stance, delivering a 50-basis-point rate cut in October to support confidence and economic activity. New Zealand remains exposed to global trade conditions, particularly through its export relationship with the United States. Around 70% of goods exports to the US are subject to a 15% “reciprocal” tariff, with goods exports totalling $9.3 billion, or around 13% of total exports, over the past year. According to Westpac, strong demand and elevated commodity prices have so far cushioned most primary exporters, although pressure would likely increase should US demand weaken, particularly across key export categories including dairy, meat, timber and horticulture.
CHART 3: POPULATION PROJECTION
CHART 4: NET MIGRATION
POPULATION
FORECAST
MIGRANT ARRIVALS
MIGRANT DEPARTURES
NET MIGRATION
6.00
250,000
5.59
200,000
5.00
150,000
4.50
100,000
4.00
50,000
3.50
-
-50,000
3.00
Source: Stats NZ
Source: Moody’s
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD
6
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