AI IMPACT: LOGISTICS & INDUSTRIAL
L&I total returns, YoY
• Vacancy sharpens quickly post-2027 amid a slowdown in new supply, lifting both capital and income growth before normalising post-2030. • This dynamic is exacerbated in the upside scenario where a more rapid increase in the share of online retail provides a structural lift to
2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
S1: Upside - Expansion
5.7% 14.1% 6.5% 26.3% 30.5% 27.1%
S2: Baseline
5.7% 11.4% 3.7% 24.0% 26.9% 23.2%
returns, though they remain below the exceptional levels of 2020 and 2021.
S3: Downside - AI Bust
5.7% 7.8% 1.1% 13.8% 18.9% 20.6%
S4: Downside - Displacement
5.7% 10.6% 1.9% 22.8% 26.8% 24.0%
• In the displacement scenario the increase in the share of online spending offsets the decline in overall spending, boosting returns even as cap rates remain higher than in other scenarios.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Cushman & Wakefield
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