AI IMPACT: RETAIL*
Gross rental growth, YoY
• Retail transmits AI impacts through the household income channel rather than direct labour substitution.
2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
S1: Upside - Expansion
4.5% 5.4% 1.5% 1.5% 3.0% 3.5%
• AI-enabled e-commerce increases the share of online retail in total spending, limiting rental growth in the upside scenario.
S2: Baseline
4.5% 5.3% 1.0% 0.6% 2.0% 2.6%
S3: Downside - AI Bust
4.5% 4.9% -1.6% -1.4% 2.8% 3.3%
• In the displacement scenario a weaker job market reduces both the consumer base and international student demand.
S4: Downside - Displacement
4.5% 5.2% 0.6% -0.7% -0.1% -0.1%
*Weighted average of regional, sub-regional, neightbourhood & CBD centres Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Cushman & Wakefield
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