AI Impact Scenarios Australia

AI IMPACT: LOGISTICS & INDUSTRIAL

Prime L&I vacancy rate*

• Industrial is the most resilient sector across the scenario range: demand is anchored in household consumption flowing through retail and 3PL networks, with AI adding a tailwind regardless of the labour market trajectory. • Development slows quickly in the bust scenario, limiting vacancy risk, but cannot keep pace with consumer-driven 3PL demand in the upside case. • The displacement scenario is constructive for new automated facilities but it splits the prime market, as stock unable to support automation competes for a shrinking user base.

2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F

S1: Upside - Expansion

3.4% 3.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%

3.4% 3.5% 2.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1.8%

S2: Baseline

S3: Downside - AI Bust

3.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.8%

S4: Downside - Displacement

3.4% 3.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2%

*Includes Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

Cushman & Wakefield

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