AI IMPACT: LOGISTICS & INDUSTRIAL
Prime L&I vacancy rate*
• Industrial is the most resilient sector across the scenario range: demand is anchored in household consumption flowing through retail and 3PL networks, with AI adding a tailwind regardless of the labour market trajectory. • Development slows quickly in the bust scenario, limiting vacancy risk, but cannot keep pace with consumer-driven 3PL demand in the upside case. • The displacement scenario is constructive for new automated facilities but it splits the prime market, as stock unable to support automation competes for a shrinking user base.
2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
S1: Upside - Expansion
3.4% 3.2% 2.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
3.4% 3.5% 2.5% 1.8% 0.7% 1.8%
S2: Baseline
S3: Downside - AI Bust
3.4% 3.7% 3.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.8%
S4: Downside - Displacement
3.4% 3.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2%
*Includes Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Cushman & Wakefield
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