AI IMPACT: JOB GROWTH Annual change in total employment, thousands
Baseline:
• Employment continues to expand at roughly 180- 250k jobs per year, as the driver of growth transitions from non-market sectors to white- collar employment. • The baseline assumes AI adoption is absorbed through redeployment rather than displacement: hiring moderates at the margin, but no year records net job losses. • Job growth decelerates modestly late in the horizon as modest demographic headwinds slow the growth of the labour force.
2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
S1: Upside - Expansion
+238 +306 +302 +296 +300 +251
S2: Baseline
+238 +246 +202 +206 +230 +181
S3: Downside - AI Bust
+120 +230 +200
+238 +130 -108
S4: Downside - Displacement
+238 +200 +130 +90 +70 +60
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Cushman & Wakefield
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