AI IMPACT: LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY
GDP per hour worked, annual % change
Baseline:
• Productivity growth recovers through the end of the decade as AI diffusion begins to lift output per hour. • The baseline assumes gradual, broad-based adoption rather than a step change: productivity settles near 1.2% per annum, close to the long- run average though below the early-2000s peak. • Productivity is the primary transmission channel for AI; differences across scenarios are sharper here than in GDP.
2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
S1: Upside - Expansion
-0.2% 0.3% 1.8% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5%
S2: Baseline
-0.2% -0.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3%
S3: Downside - AI Bust
-0.2% -0.4% 0.5% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%
S4: Downside - Displacement
-0.2% 0.2% 1.8% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1%
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Cushman & Wakefield
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