AI Impact Scenarios Australia

AI IMPACT: OFFICE EMPLOYMENT

Annual change in office-using industries

Baseline:

• Office-using employment adds roughly 60 to 85 thousand jobs per year, with 2026 the softest as tighter policy weighs on hiring, before growth firms as rate cuts come into view. • Office-using industries account for around a third of total job growth despite being closer to a quarter of employment: AI reshapes the composition of white-collar work rather than reducing headcount.

2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F

S1: Upside - Expansion

+82

+110 +109

+113

+108

+41

+70 +83

+73

+73

+66

S2: Baseline

+41

S3: Downside - AI Bust

+25

-75

+13

+105

+88

+41

S4: Downside - Displacement

+58

+57

+29

+13

-4

+41

• Growth settles into a 60 to 70 thousand band from 2030, above the long-run average.

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

Cushman & Wakefield

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