AI IMPACT: OFFICE EMPLOYMENT
Annual change in office-using industries
Baseline:
• Office-using employment adds roughly 60 to 85 thousand jobs per year, with 2026 the softest as tighter policy weighs on hiring, before growth firms as rate cuts come into view. • Office-using industries account for around a third of total job growth despite being closer to a quarter of employment: AI reshapes the composition of white-collar work rather than reducing headcount.
2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
S1: Upside - Expansion
+82
+110 +109
+113
+108
+41
+70 +83
+73
+73
+66
S2: Baseline
+41
S3: Downside - AI Bust
+25
-75
+13
+105
+88
+41
S4: Downside - Displacement
+58
+57
+29
+13
-4
+41
• Growth settles into a 60 to 70 thousand band from 2030, above the long-run average.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Cushman & Wakefield
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