AI Impact Scenarios Australia

AI IMPACT: MELBOURNE Real Gross Value Added, annual % change

• Melbourne is the fastest-growing capital in the baseline, with growth above 3% supported by the strongest population inflows of any city and a broad industry base spanning professional services, education and advanced manufacturing. • In the displacement case AI-driven output gains from advanced manufacturing hold GVA close to baseline even as employment weakens. • Non-market sectors softens the impact of the displacement scenario on the labour market but does not completely offset the impact.

2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F

S1: Upside - Expansion

1.2% 3.6% 3.6% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9%

S2: Baseline

1.2% 3.4% 3.0% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2%

S3: Downside - AI Bust

1.2% 2.9% 0.6% 3.9% 4.4% 3.9%

S4: Downside - Displacement

1.2% 3.7% 3.7% 4.1% 3.6% 2.9%

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research

Cushman & Wakefield

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