AI IMPACT: ADELAIDE Real Gross Value Added, annual % change
• Growth is the softest of the mainland capitals early in the horizon, near 1% in 2026, before building toward 2.4% as the AUKUS submarine program scales up and Australia’s productivity growth recovers more broadly. • Defence procurement provides a long, predictable demand pipeline that operates independently of the economic cycle: a slow start, but the most stable trajectory of any capital.
2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
S1: Upside - Expansion
2.0% 1.2% 1.7% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5%
S2: Baseline
2.0% 1.0% 1.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.2%
S3: Downside - AI Bust
2.0% 0.7% -0.2% 2.6% 2.9% 2.6%
S4: Downside - Displacement
2.0% 1.2% 1.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.3%
• As a result, Adelaide has a relatively narrow scenario dispersion.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Cushman & Wakefield
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