CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD | 4
AUSTRALIA'S OCCUPIER MARKET OUTLOOK
MARKET FORECASTS FOR 2027 A slow recovery in demand meets a thinning supply pipeline, setting up tighter conditions through 2027.
4.0%
3.9%
~60%
12%
1.9m sqm
OF SPEC PIPELINE IN THREE SUBMARKETS
PRE-LEASE SHARE OF TAKE-UP, YTD 2026
PRIME RENTAL GROWTH, 2027
VACANCY PEAK, Q4 2026
NET ABSORPTION, 2027
RENTAL GROWTH BROADENS BEYOND SUPPLY- CONSTRAINED MARKETS Prime rents to increase by 4.0% in 2027, with select markets expected to see growth of closer to 4.5%.
VACANCY BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
SPECULATIVE SUPPLY TO FALL
SLOW RECOVERY IN NET ABSORPTION
PRE-LEASE ACTIVITY IMPROVES
National vacancy is forecast to peak at around 3.9% in Q4 2026 before declining towards 3.0% by the end of 2027, although conditions will vary widely by submarket.
Speculative completions in 2027 are forecast to reach their lowest level since 2021, with three submarkets accounting for almost 60% of the pipeline.
National net absorption is forecast to reach 1.9 million sqm in 2027, supported by a recovery in Melbourne and the completion of pre-committed facilities that are expansionary.
As occupier requirements improve and existing prime options are absorbed, a greater share of large requirements is expected to move towards pre- lease solutions.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
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