04 WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD | 28
AUSTRALIA'S OCCUPIER MARKET OUTLOOK
WHERE WILL CONDITIONS TIGHTEN FIRST? Vacancy is forecast to fall across all five markets as absorption recovers, although tightening will vary by city and precinct.
Vacancy to trend lower from 2027 National L&I vacancy rate by city
Improving net absorption and a smaller uncommitted supply pipeline are expected to reduce vacancy across the major markets from 2027. Brisbane’s tightening, already underway in 2026, is forecast to continue, while Melbourne begins to recover from a higher vacancy rate. Citywide vacancy will not capture the full extent of the change in occupier choice. Infill and land- constrained locations are forecast to tighten earlier once current speculative supply is digested. Alternatively, vacancy in greenfield precincts, including Sydney’s Outer West and Melbourne’s South East, are expected to remain higher for longer, although some large facilities will fall out of the numbers in early 2027, adding to downward vacancy pressure. Leasing availability is forecast to reach its lowest point in 2029 before rising in several markets in early 2030, supported by improving development economics. The timing will depend on the strength of occupier demand and how much conditional development proceeds.
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Dashed = forecast
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Perth
Adelaide
Infill and land-constrained locations are forecast to tighten earlier once current speculative supply is digested.
Greenfield precincts, including Sydney's Outer West and Melbourne's South East, are expected to remain higher for longer.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Powered by FlippingBook