04 WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD | 26
AUSTRALIA'S OCCUPIER MARKET OUTLOOK
SUPPLY INCREASINGLY DEPENDS ON COMMITMENT Around a third of supply over the next 15 months is subject to a pre-commitment, limiting the risk of broad-based oversupply.
Potential supply, Q3 2026 to Q4 2027 National L&I supply pipeline (sqm millions)
Following a record wave of development, supply conditions are normalising. Higher construction costs, tighter funding conditions and longer planning timeframes are shifting development towards a more disciplined, pre- lease-led approach. From Q3 2026 to Q4 2027, there is potential for almost 3.1 million sqm. However, approximately 1.1 million sqm will only be activated following a pre-commitment. Excluding this space, the pre-commitment rate for supply over the next 15 months stands at 56%. The uncommitted speculative pipeline is forecast to total around 865,000 sqm over the period, well below the levels recorded in recent years. As a scenario, even if all this space were to become available now with no absorption, the national vacancy rate would only increase to 4.4%.
3.1m sqm potential supply, Q3 2026 to Q4 2027
3.5
3.0
1.11m
2.5
56% pre-commitment rate, excluding space awaiting a pre-commitment
2.0
3.06m
0.86m
1.5
1.0
4.4% national vacancy if all uncommitted space became available now, with no absorption
1.09m
0.5
0.0
Total
Committed
Uncommitted spec. Awaiting pre-commit.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
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