04 WHAT HAPPENS NEXT
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD | 24
AUSTRALIA'S OCCUPIER MARKET OUTLOOK
HOW MUCH SPACE WILL OCCUPIERS NEED? Net absorption is forecast to recover from mid-2027 as deferred requirements progress and pre-committed facilities are completed.
Downside risk: Weaker trading conditions or
Recovery in net absorption from 2027 Logistics & industrial net absorption by city (sqm millions)
Net absorption is expected to remain subdued over the next six months before recovering from mid-2027. The completion of pre-committed facilities, which represent expansion space, is the catalyst behind the increase. Notable examples include Kmart and Amazon, both of which are taking on more space at their new distribution centres in Sydney and Melbourne respectively. A large volume of active requirements has been put on hold in 2026, while others have undertaken short-term renewals. Deferred requirements provide a potential source of future activity, although some may remain on hold, convert to renewals or be offset by backfill released through relocation and consolidation. National net absorption is forecast to rise from almost 1.1 million sqm in 2026 to approximately 1.9 million sqm in 2027. While solid relative to recent years, the 2027 forecast remains below the 10-year average. From 2028 to 2031, net absorption is projected to average close to 2.9 million sqm annually. National gross take-up is expected to average around 4.0 million sqm per annum over this period.
prolonged rate pressure could delay the recovery and keep net absorption in 2027 closer to 2026 levels.
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F 2031F
F = forecast
Sydney
Melbourne
Brisbane
Perth
Adelaide
10-year annual average
Net absorption forecast to rise from almost 1.1 million sqm in 2026 to approximately 1.9 million sqm in 2027.
From 2028 to 2031, net absorption is projected to average close to 2.9 million sqm annually.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
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