02 STRUCTURAL & EMERGING DEMAND DRIVERS
CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD | 11
AUSTRALIA'S OCCUPIER MARKET OUTLOOK
STRUCTURAL DRIVERS EXPAND THE DISTRIBUTION TASK Population, e-commerce and inventory requirements increase the volume moving through logistics networks, but economic conditions and capacity utilisation will determine how much additional space is required.
Population growth continues to expand the task Australian population (million persons)
E-commerce remains below more mature markets E-commerce penetration rate by market
Population growth and e-commerce continue to expand the volume of goods moving through Australian supply chains. However, recent experience demonstrates that structural demand does not automatically translate into additional warehouse take-up. The timing and scale of future space requirements will depend on consumer spending, business confidence, inventory decisions and how effectively occupiers utilise existing capacity.
25.0 26.0 27.0 28.0 29.0 30.0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
China South Korea
United Kingdom
United States
Global Average
Australia Japan
2020 2022
2024 2026
2028
2030
Actual
Forecast
Australia, current
Australia, penetration by 2027
Inventory levels remain above pre-pandemic norms Australian inventory levels by sector (indexed to 100 in June 2016)
Medium term structural demand remains Supply vs demand drivers, 2025 to 2030 (sqm millions)
4 6 8 10 12 14
170
150
4.7
130
8.0
6.9
110
0 2
90
Supply
Population + e-commerce demand
2016 2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Wholesale trade
Supply
Population driven
E-commerce driven
Source: ABS, Oxford Economics, NAB, Australia Post, Cushman & Wakefield Research
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