AI IMPACT Baseline scenario: Economy
LABOUR MARKETS
STEADY GROWTH BACKDROP Real GDP averages between 2% to 2.5% over the next decade, navigating near-term energy headwinds as AI investment provides an increasingly positive uplift to growth. PRODUCTIVITY & GROWTH GAINS AI provides a modest offset to Australia's weak trend productivity growth, with adoption continuing at its current incremental pace rather than a structural step-change. Gains build gradually and arrive late in the decade.
NEAR-TERM
LONG-TERM
AI adoption becomes more widespread and while the economy continues to expand, job growth moderates slightly in line with long term trend.
Slowdown in employment in 2027 followed by robust recovery over 2028 and 2029.
INFLATION NORMALISES
CENTRAL BANKS
10-YR BONDS
CPI settles back into the RBA’s 2% to 3% target band by the end of 2027.
The Cash Rate stays elevated into 2027 before normalizing and settling between 3% and 3.5%.
10-year Gov’t bond yields begin to ease in 2027 and settle near 4%, consistent with stable capital markets.
SMARTER SERVICES, STRONGER EXPORTS AI lifts Australia's supply side through services productivity, amplified by demand for critical minerals and LNG exports supporting a regional build-out in AI infrastructure.
Cushman & Wakefield
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