AI IMPACT: LONG TERM YIELDS 10-Year Commonwealth Government Treasury Yield, year-end
Baseline:
• Long yields drift gradually lower, easing from around 5% toward 4.3% by 2030 as inflation returns to target and the cash rate normalises. • Yields settle roughly 70 basis points above the cash rate, a normal gap by historical standards, reflecting steady government debt issuance that markets absorb without stress. • The decline is slow as solid investment demand across the economy keeps yields from falling much further, so there is no return to the ultra-low rates of the 2010s.
2025 2026F 2027F 2028F 2029F 2030F
S1: Upside - Expansion
4.4% 4.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%
S2: Baseline
4.4% 5.0% 4.7% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3%
S3: Downside - AI Bust
4.4% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 4.6% 4.5%
S4: Downside - Displacement
4.4% 4.9% 4.4% 3.2% 3.2% 3.4%
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Cushman & Wakefield
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